What were the notable figures in the electricity markets this month?
September offered an exciting mix of volatility and extremes, showing that, despite the end of the month, we still had 60 hours with negative prices. At the same time, the highest hourly price in September rose to 413.66 €/MWh. It is noteworthy that on three different days, a distinct „evening peak” of over 400 €/MWh was recorded, while the day-ahead auction as a whole exhibited enormous fluctuations ranging from -53.40 €/MWh to 413.66 €/MWh. Ultimately, the monthly average hourly price stood at 83.51 €/MWh, although the 15-minute auction exhibited even wilder fluctuations, ranging between 118.57 and 515.44 €/MWh in September.
What are some possible reasons for this market behavior?
Market behavior can be directly attributed to the mixed weather conditions, which gave rise to two opposing forces. We still had some very sunny days, which led to a significant drop in prices due to high solar power generation. For the first time, however, we also saw price trends that more closely resembled a „winter” pattern, resulting in significant evening spikes as solar power generation dropped sharply while underlying demand remained robust.
What are your expectations for next month?
October will bring two major, far-reaching changes to the market. First, a major market change is on the horizon, as the EPEX Day-Ahead auction will switch to 15-minute granularity starting October 1—a significant and exciting development for market participants. Second, with the official end of summer, we are entering a transitional phase that will be characterized by fundamentally different daily price curves and structures. The question of how high the „evening peak” will rise is quickly becoming the dominant factor and the decisive element for the next phase of market dynamics.
