What were the striking figures on the electricity markets this month?
September delivered a compelling mix of volatility and extremes, showing that despite the month winding down, we still saw 60 hours of negative prices. Simultaneously, the highest hourly price skyrocketed to 413.66 €/MWh on September. Remarkably, three separate days registered a significant "evening peak" above 400 €/MWh, while the overall day-ahead auction demonstrated immense fluctuation, trading between -53.40 €/MWh and 413.66 €/MWh. Ultimately, the monthly average hourly price settled at 83.51 €/MWh, though the 15-minute auction demonstrated even wilder swings, ranging from 118.57 to 515.44 €/MWh throughout September.
What are the possible reasons for this market behavior?
The market behaviour can be directly attributed to the mixed weather situation, which created two opposing forces. We still experienced some very sunny days, which drove down prices significantly due to high solar generation. However, for the first time, we also saw the emergence of more "winter" pattern price curves, which generated significant evening peaks as solar generation dropped off sharply and underlying demand remained robust.
What do you expect for the next month?
October is set to bring two major, impactful shifts to the market. Firstly, a crucial market change is scheduled as the EPEX Day-Ahead auction will switch to 15-minute granularity starting October 1st, marking a critical and exciting development for market participants. Secondly, with summer officially over, we are entering the transitional period, which will be characterized by fundamentally different daily price curves and structures. Moving forward, the question of how high the "evening peak" will climb is quickly becoming the single dominant factor and the element defining the next phase of market dynamics.
