What were the notable figures in the electricity markets this month?
One significant change was the shift to 15-minute day-ahead auctions in Germany, which gave rise to fascinating new price patterns. As PV generation entered its „winter hiatus,” the focus also shifted. Wind and fossil fuel-based energy emerged from the shadows and had a significant impact on prices and grid balance.
What are some possible reasons for this market behavior?
In October, there was a significant „role reversal“ between solar and wind energy. Since solar output naturally declines in the fall, wind energy increasingly dictated the dynamics on the supply side. The combination of falling temperatures and the first signs of the winter heating season also brought the gas market into focus and amplified its influence on electricity prices and grid stability. This temperature- and gas-market situation will be an interesting factor to watch this coming winter.
What are your expectations for next month?
We expect a strong shift toward a market more heavily reliant on fossil fuels, which means that the price of natural gas will have a greater, more direct impact on the price of electricity and will primarily determine marginal costs. Combined with the often volatile nature of wind power generation, this suggests that we are heading toward a period marked by more frequent price spikes and rapid fluctuations. The severity of winter weather and its associated effects on heating demand and gas storage will be the dominant factors in this regard.
