What were the striking figures on the electricity markets this month?
A major shift was the transition to 15-minute day-ahead auctions in Germany, which introduced fascinating new price patterns. Furthermore, with PV generation entering its "winter break", the spotlight shifted. Wind and fossil power stepped out of the shadows, significantly impacting prices and grid balance.
What are the possible reasons for this market behavior?
October saw a clear "role change" between solar and wind generation. As solar output naturally declines in autumn, wind power dictated more of the supply side dynamics. The combination of cooling temperatures and early signs of the winter heating season also began to push the gas market into focus, increasing its influence on power prices and system stability. This temperature/gas market situation is becoming the interesting factor for the coming winter.
What do you expect for the next month?
We anticipate a strong move toward a more fossil-driven market, meaning the gas price will have a greater, more direct influence on the electricity price, primarily setting the marginal cost. This, combined with the often-volatile wind generation, suggests we're heading into a period of increased price spikes and rapid shifts. The full extent of winter weather and its corresponding impact on heating demand and gas storage will be the dominant factor.
