What were the striking figures on the electricity markets this month?
March began with a clear reminder that the sun, and therefore PV energy, is back: although parts of southern Germany were still covered in snow, we experienced the first days of the year with structurally negative electricity prices and moderate evening peaks. However, this changed quickly. The escalation of the war in Iran drove gas prices, and therefore electricity prices, up sharply and shaped the second half of the month.
What makes this situation fundamentally different from 2022is the significantly higher availability of PV electricity. Instead of uniformly high prices, we are now seeing pronounced intraday price ranges: Very low or negative prices during solar peaks and significantly higher prices in the morning and evening hours - an environment that is attractive for BESS optimization and flexible systems despite the situation on the oil and gas markets.
What are the possible reasons for this market behavior?
Geopolitics returned to the energy markets with full force. The escalation in Iran had a direct impact on gas prices and reminded us how fragile the energy supply chains still are - with effects that extend far beyond the energy markets and affect everyday life. At the same time, the electricity grid looks very different than it did just a few years ago: More PV means steeper load curves, even if overall temperatures remain low. The result: higher short-term volatility.
What do you expect for the next month?
April brings longer days, rising solar power yields and several long public holiday weekends around Easter - all of which point to more frequent hours with low or negative prices. Especially as temperatures are not yet particularly high and PV efficiency is therefore significantly higher than in midsummer. At the same time, the gas prices associated with the Iran war will continue to be a cause for concern for some time, as there is no incentive to store gas at this price level - although the gas storage season actually begins on April 1. Continued volatility and high energy prices are therefore to be expected.
