What were the striking figures on the electricity markets this month?
For me, the key theme this month is clearly winter. We observed several price spikes driven by extremely cold weather, which created attractive profit opportunities in the flexibility market throughout January. And it looks like winter is far from over.
What are the possible reasons for this market behavior?
Gas storage levels are dropping rapidly and have already fallen below 35%. A gas shortage scenario (defined as storage levels below 20%) is coming into view and could realistically be reached within the next 2 to 3 weeks if current withdrawal rates continue.
Once inventories drop below 20%, the deliverable output also falls due to decreasing storage pressure. The situation is particularly tense in Southern Germany, where gas storage levels are even more strained.
At the same time, weather forecasts for February (and even March) indicate a significant probability of continued and in some cases very severe cold spells. The split of the polar vortex in the stratosphere is increasing the likelihood of Arctic air outbreaks across the entire Northern Hemisphere, similar to what we recently saw in the United States.
What do you expect for the next month?
Given the persistently cold weather outlook and the increasingly tight gas situation, we can expect continuing #volatility and further price spikes in the flexibility market. If storage levels keep declining at the current pace, market tensions could intensify, especially in regions already facing constrained gas availability. Winter conditions will remain the dominant market driver for the coming weeks.
