What were some notable figures in the electricity markets this month?
March began with a clear reminder that the sun—and thus PV energy—is back: Although parts of southern Germany were still covered in snow, we experienced the first few days of the year with structurally negative electricity prices and moderate evening peaks. However, this changed quickly. The escalation of the war in Iran drove gas prices—and thus electricity prices—sharply higher, shaping the second half of the month.
What makes this situation fundamentally different from 2022, is the significantly higher availability of PV electricity. Instead of uniformly high prices, we now see pronounced intraday price ranges: Very low or negative prices during solar peak periods and significantly higher prices in the morning and evening hours—an environment that, despite the situation on the oil and gas markets, is attractive for BESS optimization and flexible power plants.
What are some possible reasons for this market behavior?
Geopolitics has returned to the energy markets with full force. The escalation in Iran had an immediate impact on gas prices and served as a reminder of just how fragile energy supply chains still are—with repercussions that extend far beyond the energy markets and affect everyday life. At the same time, the power grid looks very different from what it did just a few years ago: More solar power means steeper load curves, even when overall temperatures remain low. The result: higher short-term volatility.
What are your expectations for next month?
April brings longer days, rising solar power output, and several long holiday weekends around Easter—all of which point to more frequent periods of low or negative prices. This is especially true since temperatures are not yet particularly high, and PV efficiency is therefore significantly higher than in midsummer. At the same time, gas prices linked to the war in Iran will remain a cause for concern for some time, since at this price level there is no incentive to store gas— although the gas storage season actually begins on April 1. Therefore, continued volatility and persistently high energy prices are to be expected.
