What were the notable figures in the electricity markets this month?
For me, this month’s main theme is clearly winter. We’ve seen several price spikes caused by extremely cold weather, which created attractive profit opportunities in the flexibility market in January. And it looks like winter is far from over.
What are some possible reasons for this market behavior?
Gas inventories are falling rapidly and have already dropped below 35 %. A gas shortage scenario (defined as inventory levels below 20 %) is looming and could realistically occur within the next two to three weeks if current withdrawal rates continue.
As soon as reserves fall below 20 %, the available supply volume also decreases due to the easing of storage pressure. The situation is particularly tight in southern Germany, where gas reserves are even scarcer.
At the same time, weather forecasts for February (and even March) indicate a high probability of persistent and, in some cases, very severe cold snaps. The splitting of the polar vortex in the stratosphere increases the likelihood of Arctic cold snaps across the entire Northern Hemisphere, similar to what we recently experienced in the United States.
What are your expectations for next month?
Given the forecast of persistently cold weather and the increasingly tight gas supply, continued volatility and further price spikes are expected in the flexibility market. If storage levels continue to decline at the current rate, market tensions could intensify, particularly in regions already facing limited gas availability. Winter conditions will remain the dominant market driver in the coming weeks.
