What were some notable figures in the electricity markets this month?
„Mayday, Mayday—it’s May 1…“—and that’s exactly the signal the market sent out. On May 1, day-ahead prices hit a low, meaning that electricity consumers once again made money by using electricity. Even more striking was how little it now takes to cause prices to fluctuate dramatically. In France, a marginal shift of ~200 MW was enough to push prices from around -30 €/MWh to nearly -500 €/MWh, which illustrates just how tight grid balancing has become.
After this extreme start, the rest of the month stabilized somewhat, with prices mostly showing a moderate decline—a noticeable change compared to previous periods.
What are some possible reasons for this market behavior?
Two factors shaped the market: On the one hand, demand for renewable energy was low. Holidays and weekends led to a structural decline in consumption, while high PV production often resulted in surpluses. As the markets stabilized near zero, even minor deviations from forecasts increasingly determined whether prices remained in positive territory or fell sharply into negative territory.
On the other hand, there was often a lack of flexibility when it mattered most. When there was an oversupply, there was insufficient responsive demand or storage capacity to absorb it, leading to rapid price declines. Seasonal effects amplified this dynamic: Rising temperatures slightly reduced PV efficiency, contributing to the more moderate price declines observed later in the month.
At the same time, regulatory developments are shaping market behavior and deserve special mention. The AgNes reform suggests that future grid fees for BESS will be based on connected capacity and will be modeled after the grid fees for generators; at the same time, an exemption from grid fees is planned for BESS projects commissioned before August 2029. In light of the postponement of dynamic grid fees to 2030/33, the move away from atypical grid usage, and adjustments to the 7,000-hour rule, flexibility is becoming even more important for the future design of the grid.
What are your expectations for next month?
With summer in full swing, we expect volatility to remain around zero, as markets are reacting more sensitively to even minor shifts in supply and demand. Flexibility remains the key bottleneck that ultimately determines who generates value. At the same time, increasing regulatory clarity is accelerating investment decisions—particularly in the area of battery storage—and thereby expanding the flexibility available to the grid and the markets.
