💡 What were striking figures in the power markets this month?
The negative price trend continues as we have already reached 400 hours with negative DA prices in 2025. 14 days with 6 or more consecutive hours with negative prices (no SDE! Maybe a colocalized BESS?!) That's a total of more than 130 hours in June with zero or negative prices (~18 %).
In other news Intraday volumes surpassed DA volumes in NL this year🤯 (only market in EU?) reiterating the increasing importance and attractiveness of the ID markets.
Prices for 15-Min products in the IDC showed the lowest price of -499,97 Euro/MWh (5% Quantile) on the 21st at11:45-12:00 and the highest of 1.845,51 Euro/MWh (95% Quantile) on the 30th at 21:00-21:15. With the highest spread of 1764,43 Euro/MWh occurring on the 14th at 05:45-6:00
🧐 What are possible reasons for the market behaviour?
The price follows the sun in NL with the market dynamics influenced by summer weather conditions and high PV penetration. Forecast errors and reserve capacity will continue to determine the market and create large price swings as we trade closer to delivery. Oversteering in the imbalance mechanism dual pricing continues to complicate the balancing mechanism with ~25% of PTU's in R2. Is more optimisation moving to ID? Perhaps one of the reasons for the increased volumes in ID?
🔮 What do you expect to happen next month?
With the summer really kicking in we will see high temperatures triggering extreme price volatility. On the supply side rising temperatures impact the cooling capacity of conventional power plants but also effect PV output. While demand spikes as people seek to cool their houses at peak of the duck curve.... Did someone say flex??!!
Stay tuned for the next Market Insights with ESFORIN!
