💡 What were the eye-catching figures on the electricity markets this month?
The negative price trend continues as we have already reached 400 hours with negative DA prices in 2025. 14 days with 6 or more consecutive hours with negative prices (no SDE! Maybe a colocalized BESS?!) That's a total of more than 130 hours in June with zero or negative prices (~18 %).
In addition, intraday volumes this year exceeded DA volumes in the Netherlands🤯 (the only market in the EU?), which underlines the increasing importance and attractiveness of the ID markets.
The prices for 15-minute products in the IDC showed the lowest price of -499.97 Euro/MWh (5 % quantile) on the 21st between 11:45 and 12:00 and the highest price of 1,845.51 Euro/MWh (95 % quantile) on the 30th between 21:00 and 21:15. The highest spread of EUR 1764.43/MWh was recorded on the 14th between 05:45 and 06:00.
🧐 What are possible reasons for the market behavior?
The price in the Netherlands follows the course of the sun, whereby the market dynamics are influenced by the summer weather conditions and the high PV penetration. Forecasting errors and reserve capacity will continue to determine the market and lead to large price fluctuations the closer we get to the delivery date. Overdriving the imbalance mechanism through dual pricing continues to complicate the balancing mechanism, with ~25 % of PTUs in R2. Is optimization increasingly shifting to ID? Is this perhaps one of the reasons for the increased volumes in ID?
🔮 What do you expect for the next month?
With the onset of summer, high temperatures will lead to extreme price fluctuations. On the supply side, rising temperatures affect the cooling capacity of conventional power plants, but also PV capacity. While demand increases because people want to cool their homes at the peak of the Duck Curve... Did someone say flexibility?
Stay tuned for the next market insights with ESFORIN!
