💡 What were the standout figures in the electricity markets this month?
The negative price trend continues, as we have already reached 400 hours of negative DA prices in 2025. 14 days with 6 or more consecutive hours of negative prices (no SDE! Perhaps a co-located BESS?!) That’s a total of more than 130 hours in June with zero or negative prices (~18 %).
In addition, intraday volumes this year exceeded DA volumes in the Netherlands🤯 (the only market in the EU?), underscoring the growing importance and appeal of intraday markets.
Prices for 15-minute products on the IDC showed a low of -499.97 euros/MWh (5th % quantile) on the 21st between 11:45 a.m. and 12:00 p.m. and the highest price of 1,845.51 euros/MWh (95th % quantile) on the 30th between 9:00 p.m. and 9:15 p.m. The highest spread of 1,764.43 euros/MWh was recorded on the 14th between 5:45 a.m. and 6:00 a.m.
🧐 What are some possible reasons for this market behavior?
In the Netherlands, prices follow the sun’s path, with market dynamics influenced by summer weather conditions and high PV penetration. Forecast errors and reserve capacity will continue to shape the market and lead to significant price fluctuations as we get closer to the delivery date. Overriding the imbalance mechanism through dual pricing continues to complicate the balancing mechanism, with ~25 % of the PTUs located in R2. Is optimization increasingly shifting to ID? Could this be one of the reasons for the increased volumes in ID?
🔮 What are your expectations for next month?
As summer begins, high temperatures will lead to extreme price fluctuations. On the supply side, rising temperatures affect the cooling capacity of conventional power plants, as well as PV output. Meanwhile, demand is rising as people seek to cool their homes at the peak of the duck curve… Did someone say flexibility?
Stay tuned for the next market insights from ESFORIN!
