What were some notable figures in the electricity markets this month?
September showed the full range of price fluctuations—in both directions.
Germany (50Hertz): On September 12, the 95-% quantile in 15-minute intraday continuous trading reached 4,376.50 €/MWh between 2:00 a.m. and 2:15 a.m. That is roughly 25 times the September median of 175.11 €/MWh—and it happened in the middle of the night.
Netherlands (TenneT): On Sunday, September 6, the 5-% quantile fell to -114.86 €/MWh between 1:45 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. And this was not an isolated incident: In 270 quarter-hours this month, the 5-% quantile was in negative territory.
On the natural gas market, the TTF price broke through the 80 €/MWh mark for the first time in three years, reaching around 82.5 €/MWh in mid-September. By comparison, the average in June was just under 45 €/MWh. At the end of the month, EU natural gas storage facilities were filled to about 71 %, well below the five-year average of about 85 %. German storage facilities were even lower, at just under 58 %.
What are some possible reasons for this market behavior?
Wind was the most important driver in the electricity markets this month. Strong winds pushed prices down, even into negative territory. During calm periods, prices rose rapidly again, and gas-fired power plants set the price amid higher fuel costs. Volatility is no longer just an issue for solar power in the evening hours. Fluctuating wind generation now causes sharp swings around the clock.
The gas markets were characterized by:
- Ongoing supply restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, with Qatar extending the force majeure on LNG deliveries
- strong demand for LNG in Asia during a heat wave in early September, which intensified competition for cargoes
- Consistently low storage levels before the start of the heating season
The result: Every news headline about Iran or LNG supplies had an immediate impact on prices.
What are your expectations for next month?
Winter is approaching, and Europe is entering the heating season with historically low storage levels. The key questions are: How early will the drawdown begin, and will the buffer be sufficient for an early winter? Some are already expecting an average TTF price of around 85 €/MWh this winter. Prices above 100 €/MWh are possible if cold weather coincides with further supply disruptions.
Geopolitics remains the major source of uncertainty: Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen, will tensions continue to escalate, and will Qatar extend the force majeure clause again? The upcoming EU ban on Russian LNG imports, set to take effect on January 1, 2027, is also likely to weigh on winter contracts.
In the electricity markets, fall storms are likely to bring more wind and lower prices, while periods of calm will cause price spikes. Volatility persists, and flexibility provided by storage and controllable loads continues to grow in value.
One thing is clear: September has shown that Europe's energy markets are heading into winter with little room for error.
