{"id":20381,"date":"2026-11-04T09:44:41","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T08:44:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.esforin.com\/?p=20381"},"modified":"2026-11-04T09:47:06","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T08:47:06","slug":"esforin-market-insight-2-octobre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.esforin.com\/fr\/esforin-market-insight-oktober-2\/","title":{"rendered":"ESFORIN MARKET INSIGHT OCTOBRE"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"20381\" class=\"elementor elementor-20381\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-120bc98a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"120bc98a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-464bbda4\" data-id=\"464bbda4\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-65940f5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"65940f5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Quels ont \u00e9t\u00e9 les chiffres marquants sur les march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ce mois-ci ?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6021d988 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6021d988\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p dir=\"ltr\">Le mois d'octobre a montr\u00e9 \u00e0 quelle vitesse le march\u00e9 de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 peut passer du calme au chaos.<\/p><p dir=\"ltr\">\u00c0 la fin du mois, l'Allemagne a connu la premi\u00e8re p\u00e9riode prolong\u00e9e de temps maussade de la saison de chauffage : froid, ciel couvert et presque sans vent. En l\u2019espace de quelques jours, le prix allemand du march\u00e9 day-ahead est pass\u00e9 d\u2019environ 13 \u20ac\/MWh le week-end \u00e0 plus de 300 \u20ac\/MWh, voire \u00e0 plus de 500 \u20ac\/MWh en soir\u00e9e.<\/p><p dir=\"ltr\">Le march\u00e9 du gaz a encore accentu\u00e9 la pression. Le TTF a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les 100 \u20ac\/MWh pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis 2022, tandis que les stocks de gaz de l'UE n'\u00e9taient remplis qu'\u00e0 environ 75 % fin octobre (en Allemagne, ce chiffre n'atteignait m\u00eame que 61 % environ). Ce chiffre est inf\u00e9rieur d'environ 14 points de pourcentage \u00e0 la moyenne sur cinq ans et repr\u00e9sente le niveau le plus bas pour cette p\u00e9riode de l'ann\u00e9e depuis le d\u00e9but des relev\u00e9s.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f467693 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"f467693\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-81f21d0 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"81f21d0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0b06d3d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"0b06d3d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Quelles sont les raisons possibles de ce comportement du march\u00e9 ?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c671fcf elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c671fcf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p dir=\"ltr\">Sur les march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, l'\u00e9olien est devenu le facteur d\u00e9terminant. L'alimentation en \u00e9nergie solaire ne joue d\u00e9sormais plus qu'un r\u00f4le secondaire, et depuis le passage \u00e0 l'heure d'hiver, le pic de consommation du soir commence d\u00e8s 17 heures, car la nuit tombe tr\u00e8s t\u00f4t.<\/p><p dir=\"ltr\">Il en r\u00e9sulte un march\u00e9 du \u00ab tout ou rien \u00bb :<\/p><ul dir=\"ltr\"><li>Peu de vent et une forte demande les soirs de semaine : les prix montent en fl\u00e8che.<\/li><li>Des vents forts et une faible demande, surtout le week-end : les prix stagnent, avec de faibles \u00e9carts, voire tombent \u00e0 un niveau proche de z\u00e9ro.<\/li><\/ul><p dir=\"ltr\">Les march\u00e9s du gaz restent marqu\u00e9s par les perturbations persistantes autour du d\u00e9troit d'Ormuz. Les stocks europ\u00e9ens \u00e9tant \u00e0 un niveau historiquement bas, tout risque d'approvisionnement se r\u00e9percute rapidement sur les prix.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-155bba2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"155bba2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f01fe3d elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"f01fe3d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-38d889a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"38d889a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Quelles sont tes attentes pour le mois prochain ?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-defb354 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"defb354\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p dir=\"ltr\">Nous pensons que cette alternance entre les extr\u00eames marquera l'hiver. Les prix du gaz maintiennent le niveau global des prix \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9, tandis que le vent d\u00e9termine si une journ\u00e9e sera marqu\u00e9e par des pics extr\u00eames ou par des prix stables et mod\u00e9r\u00e9s.<\/p><p dir=\"ltr\">En mati\u00e8re de gaz, il n'y a plus de retour en arri\u00e8re possible : depuis fin octobre, l'Europe est pleinement entr\u00e9e dans la phase de pr\u00e9l\u00e8vement sur les stocks. Certes, le d\u00e9but des pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements a pu \u00eatre l\u00e9g\u00e8rement repouss\u00e9 cette ann\u00e9e par rapport \u00e0 l'ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, mais cette marge de man\u0153uvre est d\u00e9sormais \u00e9puis\u00e9e. La suffisance des quantit\u00e9s d\u00e9pendra des conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques.<\/p><p dir=\"ltr\">Le tourbillon polaire fait d\u00e9j\u00e0 l'objet de nombreuses discussions sur Internet, avec des pr\u00e9visions allant de semaines douces \u00e0 tr\u00e8s froides. Pour nous, cela montre avant tout une chose : personne ne sait encore vraiment ce que cet hiver nous r\u00e9serve.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8525963 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"8525963\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-bf1f16c elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"bf1f16c\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-a35810c\" data-id=\"a35810c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>P\u00e9riode de faible production d'\u00e9nergie renouvelable, d\u00e9ficit record des stocks, prix du gaz sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 100 \u20ac\/MWh : la r\u00e9trospective du mois d'octobre par Matthias Dilthey.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":20383,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - 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