{"id":20357,"date":"2026-10-09T09:47:56","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T07:47:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.esforin.com\/?p=20357"},"modified":"2026-10-09T09:55:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T07:55:26","slug":"esforin-market-insight-2-septembre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.esforin.com\/fr\/esforin-market-insight-september-2\/","title":{"rendered":"ESFORIN MARKET INSIGHT SEPTEMBRE"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Quels ont \u00e9t\u00e9 les chiffres marquants sur les march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ce mois-ci ?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Le mois de septembre a mis en \u00e9vidence toute l'amplitude de la fourchette des prix, et ce dans les deux sens.<\/p>

Allemagne (50Hertz) : Le 12 septembre, le quantile 95-% a atteint 4 376,50 \u20ac\/MWh entre 2 h 00 et 2 h 15, dans le cadre du march\u00e9 continu intrajournalier toutes les 15 minutes. Ce chiffre repr\u00e9sente environ 25 fois la m\u00e9diane de septembre, qui s'\u00e9levait \u00e0 175,11 \u20ac\/MWh, et ce en pleine nuit.<\/p>

Pays-Bas (TenneT) : Le dimanche 6 septembre, le quantile 5-% est tomb\u00e9 \u00e0 -114,86 \u20ac\/MWh entre 13 h 45 et 14 h 00. Et ce n'\u00e9tait pas un cas isol\u00e9 : au cours de 270 quarts d'heure ce mois-ci, le quantile 5-% s'est situ\u00e9 en territoire n\u00e9gatif.<\/p>

Sur le march\u00e9 du gaz, le TTF a franchi pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis trois ans la barre des 80 \u20ac\/MWh, atteignant environ 82,5 \u20ac\/MWh \u00e0 la mi-septembre. \u00c0 titre de comparaison, la moyenne s'\u00e9levait \u00e0 un peu moins de 45 \u20ac\/MWh en juin. \u00c0 la fin du mois, les stocks de gaz de l'UE \u00e9taient remplis \u00e0 environ 71 %, soit nettement en dessous de la moyenne sur cinq ans, qui s'\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 environ 85 %. Les stocks allemands n'atteignaient m\u00eame qu'\u00e0 peine 58 %.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Quelles sont les raisons possibles de ce comportement du march\u00e9 ?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Sur les march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, le vent a \u00e9t\u00e9 le principal facteur d\u00e9terminant ce mois-ci. Des vents violents ont fait baisser les prix, les faisant m\u00eame passer en territoire n\u00e9gatif. Lors des p\u00e9riodes sans vent, ils ont rapidement remont\u00e9, et les centrales \u00e0 gaz ont dict\u00e9 les prix en raison de la hausse des co\u00fbts des combustibles. La volatilit\u00e9 n'est plus depuis longtemps un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne propre \u00e0 l'\u00e9nergie solaire en fin de journ\u00e9e. Les fluctuations de l'apport \u00e9olien entra\u00eenent d\u00e9sormais de fortes variations 24 heures sur 24.<\/p>

Les march\u00e9s du gaz ont \u00e9t\u00e9 marqu\u00e9s par :<\/p>

  • les restrictions persistantes sur les livraisons dans le d\u00e9troit d'Ormuz, le Qatar ayant prolong\u00e9 la clause de force majeure pour les livraisons de GNL<\/li>
  • une forte demande de GNL en Asie lors d'une vague de chaleur d\u00e9but septembre, qui a intensifi\u00e9 la concurrence pour les cargaisons<\/li>
  • des niveaux de stockage constamment bas avant le d\u00e9but de la saison de chauffage

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    R\u00e9sultat : chaque titre d'actualit\u00e9 concernant l'Iran ou l'approvisionnement en GNL avait un impact imm\u00e9diat sur les prix.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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    Quelles sont tes attentes pour le mois prochain ?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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    L'hiver approche, et l'Europe aborde la saison de chauffage avec des niveaux de stockage historiquement bas. Les questions centrales sont les suivantes : quand les pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements sur les r\u00e9servoirs commenceront-ils, et la marge de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 sera-t-elle suffisante pour un hiver pr\u00e9coce ? Certains s'attendent d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 un prix TTF moyen d'environ 85 \u20ac\/MWh cet hiver. Des prix sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 100 \u20ac\/MWh sont possibles si le froid venait \u00e0 co\u00efncider avec de nouvelles interruptions d'approvisionnement.<\/p>

    La g\u00e9opolitique reste le principal facteur d'incertitude : le d\u00e9troit d'Ormuz sera-t-il rouvert, les tensions vont-elles continuer \u00e0 s'intensifier, et le Qatar va-t-il \u00e0 nouveau prolonger la clause de force majeure ? L'interdiction prochaine par l'UE des importations de GNL russe \u00e0 compter du 1er janvier 2027 devrait \u00e9galement peser sur les contrats d'hiver.<\/p>

    Sur les march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, les temp\u00eates d'automne devraient entra\u00eener une augmentation de la production \u00e9olienne et une baisse des prix, tandis que les p\u00e9riodes sans vent provoqueront des pics de prix. La volatilit\u00e9 persiste, et la flexibilit\u00e9 offerte par le stockage et les charges r\u00e9glables continue de gagner en importance.<\/p>

    Une chose est s\u00fbre : le mois de septembre a montr\u00e9 que les march\u00e9s \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques europ\u00e9ens abordent l'hiver avec une marge d'erreur tr\u00e8s r\u00e9duite.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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    Alerte d'automne | L'analyse de Christoph Gardlos sur l'\u00e9volution des march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9nergie en septembre<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":20359,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nESFORIN MARKET INSIGHT SEPTEMBER - ESFORIN<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Energiem\u00e4rkte im September 2026: ESFORINs Analyse und Winter-Ausblick.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.esforin.com\/fr\/esforin-market-insight-2-septembre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ESFORIN MARKET INSIGHT SEPTEMBER - 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