{"id":17094,"date":"2025-07-04T08:49:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T08:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost:8888\/esf\/?p=17094"},"modified":"2025-07-04T08:49:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T08:49:00","slug":"esforin-market-insight-june","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.esforin.com\/fr\/esforin-market-insight-june\/","title":{"rendered":"ESFORIN MARKET INSIGHT JUNE"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\ud83d\udca1 Quels ont \u00e9t\u00e9 les chiffres marquants sur les march\u00e9s de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ce mois-ci ?<\/strong><\/p>

La tendance des prix n\u00e9gatifs se poursuit, puisque nous avons d\u00e9j\u00e0 atteint 400 heures avec des prix DA n\u00e9gatifs en 2025. 14 jours avec 6 heures cons\u00e9cutives ou plus de prix n\u00e9gatifs (pas de SDE ! Peut-\u00eatre un BESS colocalis\u00e9 ?!) Cela fait un total de plus de 130 heures en juin avec des prix nuls ou n\u00e9gatifs (~18 %).<\/p>

En outre, les volumes intrajournaliers ont d\u00e9pass\u00e9 cette ann\u00e9e les volumes DA aux Pays-Bas\ud83e\udd2f (seul march\u00e9 de l'UE ?), ce qui souligne l'importance et l'attrait croissants des march\u00e9s ID.<\/p>

Les prix des produits de 15 minutes dans l'IDC ont montr\u00e9 le prix le plus bas de -499,97 euros\/MWh (5 quantiles %) le 21 entre 11h45 et 12h00 et le prix le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de 1845,51 euros\/MWh (95 quantiles %) le 30 entre 21h00 et 21h15. Le spread le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de 1764,43 euros\/MWh a \u00e9t\u00e9 enregistr\u00e9 le 14 entre 05h45 et 06h00.<\/p>

\ud83e\uddd0 Quelles sont les raisons possibles du comportement sur le march\u00e9 ?<\/strong><\/p>

Aux Pays-Bas, le prix suit la courbe du soleil, la dynamique du march\u00e9 \u00e9tant influenc\u00e9e par les conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques estivales et la forte p\u00e9n\u00e9tration du PV. Les erreurs de pr\u00e9vision et les capacit\u00e9s de r\u00e9serve continueront \u00e0 d\u00e9terminer le march\u00e9 et \u00e0 entra\u00eener d'importantes fluctuations de prix \u00e0 mesure que nous nous rapprochons de la date de livraison. Une saturation du m\u00e9canisme de d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre par la double tarification continue de compliquer le m\u00e9canisme d'\u00e9quilibrage, avec ~25 % des PTU en R2. L'optimisation se d\u00e9place-t-elle de plus en plus vers ID ? Est-ce peut-\u00eatre l'une des raisons de l'augmentation des volumes en ID ?<\/p>

\ud83d\udd2e Qu'attends-tu pour le mois prochain ?<\/strong><\/p>

Avec l'arriv\u00e9e de l'\u00e9t\u00e9, les temp\u00e9ratures \u00e9lev\u00e9es vont entra\u00eener des variations de prix extr\u00eames. Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l'offre, la hausse des temp\u00e9ratures a un impact sur la capacit\u00e9 de refroidissement des centrales \u00e9lectriques conventionnelles, mais aussi sur la puissance photovolta\u00efque. Alors que la demande augmente parce que les gens veulent refroidir leurs maisons au plus fort de la courbe de Duck... Quelqu'un a-t-il dit flexibilit\u00e9 ?<\/p>

Restez \u00e0 l'\u00e9coute pour les prochains aper\u00e7us du march\u00e9 avec ESFORIN !<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

? ??? Regards sur le march\u00e9 avec les experts d'ESFORIN ! Nous avons demand\u00e9 \u00e0 Thomas Crabtree de r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 la dynamique du march\u00e9 de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 aux Pays-Bas en juin :<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17306,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nESFORIN MARKET INSIGHT JUNE - ESFORIN<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markteinblicke mit ESFORIN-Experten! Wir haben Thomas Crabtree gebeten, \u00fcber die Dynamik des Strommarktes in den Niederlanden im Juni zu reflektieren.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.esforin.com\/fr\/esforin-market-insight-june\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ESFORIN MARKET INSIGHT JUNE - ESFORIN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Markteinblicke mit ESFORIN-Experten! 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